SOKREN Global Operations
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Intel Reports
Conflicts & Threats
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Active Conflicts armed conflict under way
Global Threat Activity cyber, terror, maritime, military pressure
Emerging Flashpoints deteriorating, not yet major
Country Watch
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Forecast Track Recordevery probability logged, reviewed and scored in public
SOKREN Global Operations

See where instability is emerging, and how confident we are in what comes next.

An open-source intelligence (OSINT) platform monitoring 133 geopolitical developments, emerging tensions, and potential flashpoints worldwide. Explore each situation on a live globe, supported by structured intelligence assessments that evolve as new information emerges, with a transparent public record of our forecasts and their accuracy.

133Areas of interest
176Countries watched
–Forecasts on record
220Vetted news sources
01What you getSee it · Understand it · Check us

See it

Every tracked conflict and threat on one live globe, ranked by the SOKREN Impact Index, with aircraft, shipping and undersea cables.

Understand it

A bottom line, an outlook and the analysis behind it for every area of interest.

Check us

Every outlook is logged as a forecast and scored in public, hit or miss.

02Who it’s forBusiness · Security · Government · Analysts

Companies abroad

People or assets overseas: travel, supply chains, shipping.

Security and risk teams

A daily picture without a newsroom.

Government

DoD components, commands, IC agencies and USG organizations.

Analysts and journalists

Sourced, structured assessments.

03Who’s behind itTimothy Rios, founder

Timothy Rios

Founder · Tampa, Florida

Former USAF Cyber Ops & Intelligence professional. Experience spans IC agencies, DoD components and top defense contractors.

SOKREN’s assessments are AI-assisted, with human oversight.

04SOKREN Impact Index0–100 · five dimensions
SIISOKREN Impact Index
A 0–100 score for each area of interest, built from five dimensions: kinetic activity, military posture, cyber activity, political instability and humanitarian impact. It shows which dimension is driving a change, not just one number. The method is proprietary to SOKREN.
LOW <50MED 50HIGH 65CRIT 80
05MethodsACH · Linchpins · SWOT · ICD 203

Competing hypotheses

Rival explanations, and the evidence that would tell them apart.

Linchpins

The key assumptions, and what follows if one fails.

SWOT for conflict

Stabilizers, vulnerabilities, de-escalation paths, escalation drivers.

Estimative language

Probabilities follow ICD 203. Every assessment is dated and revised as events move.

06Data sourcesNews · Cyber · Satellites · Aircraft · Ships

News and analysis

  • Think tanks and conflict analysts: International Crisis Group, CFR, CSIS, Institute for the Study of War, Atlantic Council, RAND, AEI, Stimson Center, 38 North, War on the Rocks, Long War Journal, Bellingcat, Geopolitical Monitor, Lawfare, InSight Crime, Balkan Insight, Foreign Policy, The Diplomat.
  • Wire services and international news: AP, Reuters, CNN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, PBS NewsHour and Frontline, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, NPR, Politico, Axios, BBC World, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, Financial Times, The Economist, France 24, DW, Kyiv Independent.
  • Official and humanitarian: UN News, ReliefWeb, Security Council Report, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. State Department, CISA.
  • Global coverage: the GDELT Project; outlets without a public feed are reached through its index.
  • Collected daily. Every item links to its original publisher.

Cyber

  • Specialist press: The Record, CyberScoop, BleepingComputer, SecurityWeek, Dark Reading, Krebs on Security, The Hacker News, Wired, Ars Technica, CSO, Help Net Security.
  • Government agencies: CISA, FBI IC3, the UK’s NCSC.
  • Threat-research teams: Google Threat Intelligence / Mandiant, Microsoft Threat Intelligence, Cisco Talos, Unit 42, Recorded Future, SentinelLabs, ESET, Check Point Research, Proofpoint, CrowdStrike.
  • Exploited vulnerabilities: CISA’s Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, linked to the National Vulnerability Database.
  • Also the cyber reporting of the wire services and newspapers above.

Satellites

  • Shown: navigation (GPS, Galileo, GLONASS, BeiDou), Earth-imaging and the two crewed stations; Starlink has its own layer.
  • Source: public orbital elements republished by CelesTrak, refreshed twice a day; positions are computed in your browser.
  • Scale: each satellite’s place around the Earth is true; heights are compressed so high orbits (GPS is about 20,000 km up) fit on screen.
  • Limits: predictions from tracking data, not live telemetry; classified satellites are not in the public catalogue.

Aircraft

  • Source: OpenSky Network, one worldwide snapshot about every 4 minutes, shared through the SOKREN relay; community ADS-B feeds (adsb.lol, adsb.fi) as fallback.
  • Military identification: by ICAO hex allocation, so military aircraft without ADS-B, or outside known ranges, won’t appear. Absence on the map is not absence in the sky.

Ships, cables and map

  • Ships: AISStream.io live AIS, shared through the SOKREN relay.
  • Cables: TeleGeography Submarine Cable Map (CC BY-NC-SA).
  • Basemap: OpenFreeMap vector tiles (OpenMapTiles schema, © OpenStreetMap contributors) with Natural Earth relief.
07LimitsWhat it can and can’t tell you
  • Scores and priorities are editorial and can lag fast-moving events.
  • Live layers depend on public feeds and can drop out.
  • Cable routes are indicative, not survey-accurate.
  • For awareness, not a substitute for professional intelligence support. Not affiliated with any government.
08Terms of useReading · Reuse · Privacy
  • Reading is free. You may use this site for personal and professional reading at no cost.
  • No copying or reuse without permission. Scraping, bulk copying, framing the site inside another, or reusing SOKREN's assessments, the SOKREN Impact Index, indicators or forecasts requires written permission from SOKREN.
  • Published reports. The report PDFs under Intel Reports are meant to circulate: they may be shared in full and unaltered. Quoting from them requires the attribution below.
  • Privacy. No cookies and no advertising trackers unless you allow one. The site keeps anonymous counts: page views; for each visit, the kind of site that sent you (for example Instagram or a search engine, or a campaign tag in the link), whether you use a phone or a computer, and whether this browser has been here before (a yes/no flag kept in your browser); and how many visits used parts of the site such as the map, an assessment, a report or the sign-up prompt. No IP addresses, identifiers or email addresses are stored with these counts, and the counts are not sent to Google, Meta or any other company. Counting is skipped entirely when your browser sends Do Not Track or Global Privacy Control. After some browsing the site asks for an email address to continue (free, no password). Signing up does not put you on a mailing list: SOKREN emails you only if you also choose the weekly update. Your address is never sold or shared and SOKREN does not link it to what you view. , or at any time.
  • Quoting. Short quotations are welcome with attribution: “Source: SOKREN Global Operations, sokren.com”.
  • Not an intelligence product, not advice. Content is provided for awareness, as is, with no warranty of accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose. Do not rely on it for safety, legal, financial or operational decisions.
  • Third-party data keeps its own license: GDELT Project; news publishers (headlines link to and remain the property of their publishers); OpenSky Network and community ADS-B feeds (adsb.lol, adsb.fi); AISStream.io; CelesTrak orbital elements and the satellite.js library (MIT); the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog and the National Vulnerability Database (US government); TeleGeography Submarine Cable Map (CC BY-NC-SA); OpenFreeMap, OpenMapTiles and OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL); Natural Earth.
  • © 2026 SOKREN. All rights reserved. SOKREN and the SOKREN mark are trademarks of SOKREN.

PREDICT · PREPARE · PROTECT

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